Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis is deceptively simple: every stock is always in one of four stages, and you only want to own it in one of them. It’s a weekly-chart framework built on the 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-week moving averages.
The four stages
- Stage 1 — Basing: after a decline, price goes sideways. Moving averages flatten. Accumulation. Wait.
- Stage 2 — Markup: price breaks out above a rising 30-week MA with the averages stacked bullishly. This is the only stage you buy.
- Stage 3 — Topping: momentum stalls, averages roll over, choppy. Distribution. Scale out.
- Stage 4 — Decline: price below a falling 10-week, bearish stack. Never long here.
The Stage-2 rules we screen for
A clean Stage-2 markup has the weekly stack in order (10 > 20 > 30 > 40-week) and price leading it. We grade three tiers:
- Tier 1 — classic surf: full bullish stack, price above the rising 10-week.
- Tier 2 — pullback: stack intact, price resting on the 20-week.
- Tier 3 — broad uptrend: price above the 30- and 40-week with the 10-week rising.
Why it beats guessing
Stage analysis removes prediction. You’re not calling tops or bottoms — you’re reading which stage the weekly chart is objectively in and only deploying capital in Stage 2. Northtape runs this classification live on the true weekly series and flags every Stage-2 name, tier by tier.
Key takeaways
- Every stock is always in one of four stages — you only buy Stage 2 (markup).
- Stage 2 = weekly moving averages stacked 10>20>30>40 with price leading.
- Right now 28 of 50 names are in Stage 2; 3 are Stage 4 (never long those).
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FAQ
What is Weinstein stage analysis?
A framework that classifies every stock into one of four weekly-chart stages — basing, markup, topping, decline — so you only buy during Stage-2 markup.
What is a Stage 2 stock?
One in a confirmed uptrend: the weekly 10/20/30/40 moving averages are stacked bullishly and price is leading them higher.
Which timeframe is stage analysis on?
The weekly chart. The stages are defined by the 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-week moving averages.